Where PA HD-45's mail vote is, 23 days out
Eight exhibits, all public data, refreshed daily from the state's mail-ballot file. Under each one is the reason it locates reach, and the numbers. Data as of October 9.
Pennsylvania House District 45 sits in one television market: Pittsburgh (1,167,890 TV homes). A broadcast point is bought for the whole market. The district is a fraction of the Pittsburgh market, so most of every point lands outside the line. Streaming is bought by the impression, by ZIP, so the corner costs what the corner costs.
Nielsen market assignment by county, TV homes 2024–25 via USTVDB. District from the Census Bureau's 119th Congress boundaries.
7,459 voters in the district have a mail ballot coming, 74% of them Democrats. Pennsylvania has no in-person early voting, so this file is the early vote. Ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count.
Every request on file with the county election offices, by party of registration. Excludes duplicates.
The state house district is the finest grain the state publishes for this file. All voters requested: 7,459 across the district.
- House District 45 · Allegheny7,459 · 100%
Hover or tap any shape for its number. ZIP and precinct boundaries from the Census Bureau; precincts are 2020 voting districts.
Cumulative requests by the day the application was issued. 68% of the file was already on it by March 1: the permanent mail list renews every January, and those voters get a ballot without asking again. Everything after that is new demand, and the slope since Labor Day is the campaign's own work showing up.
Application issue date, by party. Permanent-list renewals appear as the January and February steps.
Share of requested ballots already returned, by days before the election. At 23 days out in 2024, 33.5% of the district's mail ballots were back. That year 13,810 were requested and 11,222 were counted. The gap between the grey line and the green one, on any given night, is the chase: the ballots a campaign can still move, by district.
2024 from the Department of State's archived general-election file for the same district; 2026 updates daily. Returned means recorded by the county.
Mail voters skew old: 60% of the file is 65 or over, and among Democrats it is 61%. The under-30 file is 496 voters, 73% of them Democrats. Streaming reaches the first group on the living-room TV and the second on the phone; the same ZIP list serves both.
Age from birth year on the application. Bands are as of election year.
21 approved applications are flagged "ID not verified." Those voters get a ballot, but it will not count until they cure the ID with the county, and most do not know that. 56 requests have been cancelled, usually by the voter. Both are lists with addresses in specific districts, which is to say, an audience.
Application type and disposition codes as published. Online applications with no ID check needed are voters whose license number matched on file.
| Unit | All voters · requested | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| House District 45 Allegheny | 7,459 | 100% |
Weights are tonight's file. They change every night as ballots come back, and the flight follows them: the streaming buy re-aims to the districts with the most ballots still out, by ZIP, at frequency, with every impression returned as a line item: the app, the show, the city, the hour, the price paid.
Antebyte buys streaming TV, online video, web and in-app impressions from one account, by ZIP and by polygon, prepaid by the week, cancel any day. If any of this is useful, reply and I'll send tonight's file for any district you name.